What in the factory, in the office, all replaced by robots?

By: Cmi4all cuadro de mando integral 

The progress of the technology to digital to carry to the sustitucion people for máquinas in all the tasks? Survey to researchers in artificial intelligence and economía on the evolution’n of our work in ten or twenty&years.

"we were driving down a street, looking anxiously at the law enforcementía and the housekeepers: they were robots. A shopkeeper turned’ with curiosity: he was a robot. Intenté to distinguish the drivers of the cars that passed us: no tenían none. in Front of the customers, the bank, the restaurant, peluquería, were robots, all, chatbots and androids, on wheels or on legs ... 
This imaginary scene, inspired by the novel by Pierre Boulle , announces the future that awaits us. In the &number;last to&years, figures scandalous have appeared in the headlines about the automatizaci’n of the work, which can be done using máquinas or software. S&number;n some studies, this affect’to almost one of every two jobs in the pr’ximos ten or twenty&years. Afterés of the Polish plumber, the dr’re working tues’nomo (ro) bot is invited to the discussion ...

How many of us will be affected?

"These studies are based on the creativity and the manual dexterity required by a job to determine if it is automatable or not," said Gregory Verdugo, a researcher at the Center of Economía of the Sorbonne. A study is más detailed in the OECD. it distinguishes the different tasks of the same job and takes into account the degree of interaction’n with clients or colleagues, a capacity-greedy adaptability and, for the moment, not automatic 100 %.Result: "only" one of every ten jobs you seeíto be threatened by the next "roboluci’n" in the países más industrialized.

With a similar approach, the survey INSEE / DARES reaches the 15% of the jobs that can be automated using, for France. "Really smart, who can predict what will beá técnicamente automatable", Gregory Verdugo says that none of these n&number;merely makes sense. "In 2004, two economists at Harvard, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane, rated the drive between the activities that escape’an to the revolutions in technology,’tragic because they require adaptaci’n unforeseen situations. Six&years afterés of the launch of his book, Google Cars cross’ the roads of California ... ", , illustrates the economist .

S&number;n the New York Times, many us banks están developing "robo-advisors", software that manages the wealth and increases the money of their customers. In Japan’n, Watson, the famous artificial intelligence from IBM, replaced the thirty-four employees of a compa&bath;’to life insurance, one-fourth of the labor force. tried algorithms to advise judges and lawyers dédecades of jurisprudence, or to distinguish between a malignant tumor . All días, or nearly, new haza&bath;as sonmaltan the r&number;factory of high technologyíto of webzines, perplexing j’have executive dinámicos.

A tax on the machinery?

While we expect a possible "roboluci’re in full," let us return to our imminent future. A consensus emerged clearly among the researchers about an idea considered counter-productive and, for the time, criticized by the European Parliament: tax máquinas "thieves" of jobs. "The robots and advanced software are a great opportunity for growth and innovation’re. Gravarlos when to&number;n have not been shown to beía est&menu;ask for ", says Gilles Saint-Paul. "If only France imposes a tax, will haveá a competitive disadvantage in comparaci’n with other países," said Gregory Executioner. Such a move couldíto cause a wave of severe "subcontrataci’re rob’tica", while our país generally considered poorly equipped and está late: 32,000 robots, against más than double in Italy, triple in Germany.

In the second place, it is not because an activity is rob’tica that are no longer used to the human: the automotive industries in Germany have 100,000 employees más that makes twenty&years . Many jobs are not qualified and skilled to disappearán, but others must be created in the new connected objects, transactions or markets devices médoctors, in which France has a large potential to express. Finally, the países with the largest number of robots (Jap’n, South Korea, Germany and Sweden) alsoén beían, those who have the least unemployment and the greatest number of jobs in the industry .

The technologyíto transform’to the employment instead of destroying it. "Look at the jobs of the bank: before the arrival of computers, they were poorly qualified (dan little&bath;os cuts, record spending, etc) ", says Gregory Executioner. once discharged from these routine activities and mecánicas, specialized in activities of consultantía más qualified. In the &number;last instance, this leads us to specialize where lies the comparative advantage of the human over the máquina. And now that the algorithms of consultantía están to the point of overcoming them, &are you;qué harán the bankers and insurers? "Findán something más to improve the service," says the economist. it Is true, human beings are very good at creating new needs, just look at the number of applications for teléphones smart you can not do without ...