The bookmaker has an advantage over the player due to the margin, but this does not mean that it is impossible to win at bets. Competent analysis allows you to neutralize the superiority of bookmakers and how to correctly analyze matches and make accurate predictions for sports; I will tell you in detail in this material.
What sport is it better to bet on?
The question that every player has asked at least once in his life is what kind of sport is better to bet on? Let's try to solve it. To begin with, the ideal sport to bet on does not exist and, by definition, cannot exist. The conventional wisdom is that you should bet on the sport you know. This is logical, reasonable, and obvious. If you don't have one, we will continue to study this topic.
There is an opinion among experts that it is better to choose unpopular sports to bet on, and even better - exotic ones. For example, kabbadi, netball, rowing, cycling, and the like. Bookmaker analysts superficially study events in such disciplines and adjust the odds with a delay, resulting in a lot of value. And this is true, but there is also a disadvantage of the coin: a high margin and generally the conditions for betting are not the most attractive: a narrow line and paint, a poor life, etc.
On the other hand, popular sports are well covered by bookmakers and the margin for such events is much lower. Additionally, statistics, injuries, interviews, and other data are easy to find in the forecasting process. Soccer, the most popular sport, stands out among them.
For the analysis of soccer matches, a large number of resources are available with detailed information on leagues, teams, footballers and each match. Football matches are held throughout the year, which is a significant advantage for stable income at bookmakers.
Based on this, I highly recommend choosing football to all PayBets users who have not decided on a sport to bet on.
For what matches should you make predictions?
Winning bets can be placed both on any sport and on any match, if you have certain knowledge and skills. But if you think about where the player has the best chances and which fights are most promising for the forecast, several criteria can be distinguished:
State tournament. For popular and prestigious soccer leagues, bookmakers offer the highest odds, as well as an extensive roster, high limits, good live conditions, and special promotions. In the top championships there is, well, practically no match-fixing, which in today's reality is a huge advantage. In addition, it is very easy to find information to analyze, everything is disassembled in detail in thousands of sites.
High motivation of opponents. As you know, motivation is one of the most important parameters of the analysis. If both teams are serious about fighting, this greatly simplifies assessing the odds when making a prediction.
A minimum of unforeseen events. It is wise to skip games where there is a lot of uncertainty. For example, the team leader's entry into the field is in doubt. And the outcome of the match depends directly on whether he plays or not. And, one wonders, what is the point of wasting time forecasting if the leader's non-participation radically changes pre-match designs?
Therefore, if a match meets these three criteria, it can be considered ideal for analysis and therefore for betting. However, this approach is not a panacea, because there can be significant modifications, taking into account the strategy used.
Stages of making a forecast
The analysis of a sporting event is a time-consuming process consisting of several stages: gathering information, processing the data obtained, and making a preliminary forecast. Next, I will tell you in detail about each of the three stages so that everyone can understand the algorithm and learn to predict. Let's take soccer as an example, but the same technique can be used for other sports as well.
Gather information about the match
The first step is to find as much information as possible about the upcoming soccer game. You should also do this step by step:
- recent games;
- home and visitor statistics;
- personal meetings;
- injuries and disqualifications;
- team lineups;
- psychological condition;
- team tactics and style;
- coaches clash;
- game schedule;
- bank length;
- match referee;
There are many factors that can affect the game and consequently the outcome of the fight. And the more information you can find, the greater the possibilities of making an accurate prediction.
Information processing and classification
At the second stage, you need to eliminate all unnecessary and focus on the main thing. In words it is simple and beautiful, but in practice it is quite difficult. There is no single and correct way to process and classify information; requires a lot of experience and knowledge in soccer.
The set of information about the match itself is not of great value and does not affect in any way the compilation of an accurate prediction. It is necessary to understand the importance and meaning of this or that parameter. To do this, the weight of each factor must be determined. For example, which is more important: a winning streak from the hosts or an advantage in the personal meetings of the guests? There is no universal methodology, an individual approach is required for each fight.
Write down all the factors in favor of the first and second teams to see the big picture and evaluate the chances of the opponents. When you have a complete list of factors, go ahead and try dividing them into major and minor. In this step, you will most likely discard some information that turns out to be of little or no value.
Preliminary prediction for the match
And the final stage, in which a thorough analysis of all the factors obtained after processing and classifying the match data should begin. Ultimately, there must be a forecast to get an accurate score.
After examining all the information and determining the weight of the factors, collect this puzzle and visually imagine how the game will go. Scroll through the match in your head, so you can reconsider the importance of different parameters and see what you haven't noticed before.
When there are no doubts in the analysis and a forecast will be made in the form of an accurate score, it is worth proceeding to familiarize yourself with the list of bookmakers for the match and find a profitable bet. Ideally, this should be a result that matches the forecast and has an overestimated coefficient (value).
We calculate the strength rating of the teams.
American professional gambler J.R. Miller, known for his books and publications on betting, has developed a system for calculating team strength ratings. It was created for American football, but can be adapted for soccer and other sports. The system is simple and straightforward, you just need to follow the algorithm:
We take the last five games and write the goals scored to calculate the attack index.
Cross out the game with the highest and lowest individual score on the list.
We add up all the goals scored in the remaining three games and divide the resulting number by three.
After that, according to the same principle, we determine the defense index of each team.
Note that this method can only be used after at least five championship rounds have been played. It is not recommended to take the results of friendly matches for calculation.
Next, let's see the example of the Barcelona - Villarreal match, how the Miller system works.
The first step is to determine Barcelona's attack rate. The team's last five games are as follows:
- Granada - Barcelona 2: 0
- Borussia 0-0 Barcelona
- Barcelona 5-2 Valencia
- Osasuna - Barcelona 2: 2
- Barcelona - Real Betis 5: 2
Cross out the games in which Barcelona scored more and fewer goals. Since both the first and second criteria are divided into two matches, we will eliminate one of them, which are matches with Borussia and Betis. We get the following: (0 + 5 + 2) /3=2.3. Star betting with https://elskodamasantiguo.com/
The second step is to calculate the defense index of Barcelona. Now we remove from the starting list the games with the biggest and smallest conceded goals. Again, we deleted the games against Borussia and Betis. The result is this: (2 + 2 + 2) / 3 = 2.
The third step is to determine Villarreal's attack rate. The results of the five previous team meetings are as follows:
Villarreal - Valladolid 2: 0
Leganes - Villarreal 0: 3
Villarreal - Real Madrid 2: 2
Raise - Villarreal 2: 1
Villarreal - Granada 4: 4
To calculate the attack index, eliminate the matches with Granada and Levante. We get the following: (2 + 3 + 2) /3=2.3.
The fourth step is to know the valuation of the Villarreal defense. We cross out the games against Granada, where there are more goals conceded, and against Valladolid (or Leganés), in which there are fewer goals conceded. Let's move on to the calculations: (0 + 2 + 2) /3=1.3.
And now let's summarize the results of the system calculations:
Barcelona's attack index is 2.3.
Barcelona's defense index is 2.
Villarreal's attack index is 2.3.
Villarreal's defense index is 1.3.