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How Did Dr. Michael Burry Predict the Mortgage Crisis in 2008?

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How Did Dr. Michael Burry Predict the Mortgage Crisis in 2008?

2008 Financial Crisis: If you consider yourself a seasoned stock market investor, you must have heard a lot about the 2007-2008 financial crisis. This Global Financial Crisis was the most severe since the Great Depression.

The 2007-2008 financial crisis was a financial and economic collapse that cost many ordinary people their jobs, savings, or, in some cases, all three. Several American homeowners discovered that they owed far more on their mortgages than the value of their homes.

Dr. Michael Burry profited from the Global Financial Crisis while trillions of dollars were lost. He not only anticipated the impending crisis, but positioned himself to profit from it. Dr. Michael Burry, a physician turned investor, considers himself a value investor and looks up to Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett as mentors. Scion Capital, his hedge fund, was founded in 2000.

He shifted his focus to the subprime market in 2005. He meticulously investigated mortgage lending practises in 2003 and 2004. Observing this, he began warning his clients about the tragic meltdown in 2005. Burry predicted in 2007 that the real estate bubble would burst.

Dr. Burry's research convinced him that subprime mortgages, particularly those with lower interest rates, and bonds based on these mortgages would begin to lose value when the original rates were replaced by significantly higher ones. How Did He Foresee the Mortgage Crisis? Did He Notice Anything Disturbing?

In 2003, he noticed that mortgages were being offered to subprime borrowers at an increasing rate. Subprime borrowers are those who pose a higher risk to lending institutions. They are the ones with poor credit. As a result, loans made to them are regarded as risky.


Returning to our discussion, the risky loans that were offered were then bundled together. They were later sold on the market as mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, are bonds that are secured by mortgages and other real estate loans.

Read more on: 2008 Financial Crisis


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