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Ammonium Nitrate Prices: During the second quarter of the year 2023

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Ammonium Nitrate Prices: During the second quarter of the year 2023



For the Quarter Ending June 2023


North America

The prices of Ammonium Nitrate have shown a decline in price trend throughout the second quarter. The prices have declined by a margin of 6.7% from April to June. The decline in the price of Ammonium Nitrate was mainly driven by a decline in feedstock Ammonia and Nitric Acid prices and diminished demand from the Nitrogenous fertilizer industry. However, fewer exports to other importing American countries like Canada and Mexico were observed due to low water levels in the Mississippi River, leading to a situation of oversupplies in the country. Ample availability of the material in the inventories coupled with diminished demand from domestic and international markets paved the way for a narrow supply gap in the country, consequently impacting the price. According to the US Bureau of Labor and Statistics, the Natural Gas Index decreased by 2.6% monthly. This was the fourth consecutive in that index. However, as the Federal Reserve of Economic Data indicates, the Consumer Price Index of the USA has shown a marginal rise from 302.91 in April 2023 to 303.29 in May 2023. In the coming months, future market sentiments suggest a potential shift toward an incline in prices backed by Natural Gas and Crude Oil fluctuations.

APAC

Prices of Ammonium Nitrate showcased a downward trajectory throughout the second quarter ending in June 2023 in the APAC region. The Ammonium Nitrate spot Ex prices declined by a margin of 5.1% in China and by 5.6% in Indonesia. The prices declined in China on the back of a decline in feedstock Ammonia and Thermal Coal prices. Further, it was observed that China reduced its exports by 0.4% at the end of May 2023, almost after a year leading to stockpiled inventories creating a situation of oversupplies in the country. Depreciating demand from the nitrogenous fertilizer industry coupled with ample material availability in the market led to a narrow demand-supply gap in the region. Additionally, as indicated by the National Bureau of Statistics China, the Purchasing Manager Index is declining and has been recorded at 48.8 in May 2023 after a marginal decline of 0.8% from the previous month, and the industrial growth rate declined from 5.6 in April 2023 to 3.5 in May 2023.


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Europe

Similar to the trend in the global market, the prices of Ammonium Nitrate showed a declining trend in this quarter. For the three months ending in June, the FOB Ammonium Nitrate prices declined by a margin of 5% from April to June. The key driving factor behind the declining prices was the country's surplus availability of feedstock material. The blast in the pipeline, which was used to transport Ammonia from Russia to other countries via Ukraine, led to the surplus availability of Ammonia in the country, consequently affecting the price of the product. Further, a progressive fall in demand from the mining and agricultural sector and a weak market of the feedstock Ammonia and Nitric Acid also supported the current prevailing price trend. Procurement orders from major importing country Brazil have also been low during this quarter, driven by fewer fertilizer purchases in the country. However, the Central Bank of Europe has increased interest rates in the region to control inflation further, which may lead to a potential shift towards an incline in prices in the region.

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