Carbon Black prices demonstrated bullish market sentiment in Q4FY23, primarily driven by declining mortgage rates and increased consumer spending. In October, the surge in carbon market prices was largely attributed to the fulfillment of past orders following the conclusion of US Auto Union strikes, which depleted carbon black inventories among major tire suppliers. Concurrently, stable demand for electric vehicles (EVs) further supported this trend.
However, energy and crude oil prices began to decline due to ample inventory reserves in the EU for winter and delayed demand for heating oils. This led to deflation in consumer gasoline and electricity prices, while high mortgage rates constrained consumption and restricted private vehicular movements, thus impacting consumer-driven carbon black markets.
In November and December, energy prices continued to decrease, mortgage rates dropped, and demand for private vehicular movement increased as consumers showed willingness to spend on leisure and travel activities. This uptick in replacement tire markets contributed to the rise in carbon black prices during these months.
By the end of December, carbon black demand weakened due to rising supply challenges stemming from Houthi attacks, reduced demand from the EV sector, and declining demand for replacement tires as winter intensified, dampening overall market sentiment. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve signaled a delayed rate cuts program, citing global uncertainties and inflationary pressure in energy and food prices.
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Carbon Black prices in Europe exhibited mixed sentiment in Q4FY23, with declines observed in October and November, followed by an uptick in December. During October and November, price movements were primarily influenced by imports from Russia and the Middle East. Replacement tire markets remained subdued due to elevated fuel and electricity costs.
The Carbon Black market was driven by both new electric vehicle (EV) sales and conventional vehicle sales, subsidized by European governments to support transition economies. Mortgage rates continued to decrease throughout the quarter, reaching their lowest point in December as the inflation premium decreased. Despite lingering inflationary pressures, consumer activity increased, leading to improved demand for Carbon Black in replacement tire markets.
Energy prices experienced significant declines but remained higher than pre-pandemic levels. Mid-December witnessed speculative destocking of Carbon Black by suppliers, as major EU zone states aimed to reduce state subsidies for sustainable transition. Demand for new EVs showed bearish trends. However, by the last week of December, prices rebounded as European suppliers engaged in speculative stocking due to ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Additionally, European sanctions on Russian imports were set to take effect by July 2024.
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