In the current quarter of 2023, the North American Ethanol market has experienced fluctuations driven by several factors. The market has maintained stability with balanced supply and demand. The escalation in upstream corn and energy prices has heightened Ethanol production costs, while destocking and declining freight rates have contributed to price reductions. Additionally, support from the USDA's loans and grants for rural energy development, coupled with increased demand from the downstream biofuel industry, has stimulated a price increase. Notably, the US market has undergone significant price changes, indicating a bearish market sentiment.
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The abundant production of corn has primarily contributed to the slight price decrease as upstream prices have softened in the US market. Moreover, global crop production and consumption upticks, alongside increased adoption of distiller's dried grains with soluble, and alleviation of Black Sea supply concerns, have driven moderate demand. The latest price for Ethanol 99% FD Houston in the US stands at USD 591/MT.
The European Ethanol market in Q4 2023 has been influenced by various factors. Initially, year-end destocking has triggered a decline in both corn and Ethanol prices. Furthermore, reduced freight rates have contributed to the downward trend in ethanol prices. However, rising energy prices and upstream corn costs have escalated production expenses. Belgium has experienced the most significant price fluctuations, characterized by a downward trajectory due to record sugarcane production catering to the domestic market. The trend for Ethanol, FD Antwerp, indicates a 24% decrease from the previous quarter, with a 21% decrease from the first to the second half of the quarter, and a 43% decrease compared to the same quarter last year.
The primary catalysts for the upward revision of global crop production and consumption have been adjustments in the Russian harvest. Moreover, the prolonged delay in the operation of advanced biofuel production has resulted in numerous companies declaring bankruptcy and dampened investment in these formerly promising biofuel technologies. The latest price of Ethanol, FD Antwerp, in Belgium for Q4 2023 stands at USD 683/MT.
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