Automobile Transportation in the Future

Automobile Transportation in the Future

In this essay, we look at the current state of vehicular transportation to see what will be required in the future.
Where Are We Now?

Safety

According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the number of traffic deaths in the United States reached its highest level since 2007. Despite Americans travelling 13 percent fewer miles as a result of the epidemic, 38,680 individuals perished on American roads in 2020, up 7.2 percent from 2019. (1).

According to the NHTSA, human error is at blame for 94% of all crashes. The remaining 6% is split evenly between vehicles, the surroundings, and the unknown. (2). Recognition error (such as a driver's inattention) and judgement error were the most common causes.

There are more sophisticated driver-assistance systems (ADAS) on the road than ever before to assist drivers in driving and parking. Automatic braking, adaptive cruise control, lane assist, backup cameras, and other features are included. Nonetheless, there have been more accidents in the last year than there have been in the previous 14 years.

We are more distracted than ever before while driving. Due to a lack of focus and comprehension of the overall scenario around us, we grow complacent and make poor decisions. Unfortunately, there has been an upsurge in deadly crashes involving alcohol and drugs over the last year (1).

Commuting

The covid-19 pandemic has pushed many people to work from home in the last year, which has its own set of advantages and disadvantages. Working from home has a number of advantages, one of which is the absence of a commute. Employees have been given back time in the day that they would have spent travelling to work or taking public transportation. According to a recent assessment of how employees are spending their additional time, 35% went to work, 60% to non-leisure tasks like housework or chores, and 5% to leisure activities.

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The way we use public transit has fundamentally altered. Ridership has decreased dramatically in practically every major city throughout the world since the outbreak, as individuals have discovered methods to work/study from home, travel less, and use alternative modes of transportation. Public transportation, however, had flaws even before the pandemic. Buses in big cities are typically overcrowded for two hours a day, and then run at an inefficient capacity for the remaining 14. Furthermore, they frequently operate at a loss for the city, do not provide first- and last-mile services, and do not operate during non-peak hours, such as midnight.

Electrification

In the last decade, electric cars have become increasingly popular. In fact, just 17,000 electric cars were on the road in 2010; by 2019, that number has risen to 7.2 million. (3). The rapid increase can be attributed to an explosion in battery range, charging infrastructure, and environmental consciousness, to name a few factors.

Global electric vehicle stock, 2010–2019, IEA, Paris, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-electric-vehicle-stock-2010-2019

However, electric vehicles account for barely 1 in 250 vehicles on the road, or 2.2 percent of the worldwide vehicle market (4). We expect this trend to continue as more manufacturers commit to producing a major share of their fleet as electric vehicles. In reality, the electric car market has been developing significantly faster than the rest of the automotive industry (3).

Nearly half a million electric buses are also in service, resulting in reduced noise and better air (3). While electric buses might save money, organisers must still address charging issues and control the range of their buses.

Ownership of a Car

In the automotive sector, there has been an increasing tendency toward subscription-based models, particularly among younger consumers. For example, 34% of Generation Y consumers said they favour renting or ridesharing services (5).

Car ownership comes with a slew of advantages, including the freedom to drive whenever and anywhere you want, the ability to customise your vehicle, and so on. However, given that the average car is parked 95% of the time (6), it can be a costly convenience. Whether a car is being driven or just parked, owners are responsible for insurance, wear and tear, maintenance costs, parking (where applicable), and other costs.

There are more alternatives to having a car than ever before. We have the option of renting a car from a local rental agency, leasing a car, using car-sharing services, or just ordering a ride through Uber, Lyft, or Taxi. Each strategy has its own set of advantages and disadvantages. Younger generations, particularly those living in cities, have taken advantage of vehicle and ridesharing, as well as short-term leases.

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So, where are we going?

Connected, Electric, and Shared Autonomous, Connected, Electric, and Shared Autonomous, Connected, Electric (ACES)

The automotive industry, as well as the transportation industry in general, appears to be headed in the path of autonomy. Self-driving cars are no longer the stuff of science fiction or our imagination; significant progress has been achieved in the direction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) during the previous decade, but there is still considerable potential for improvement.

Autonomous

We are only scratching the surface of the promise of autonomous car technology as it becomes a reality. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) can be utilised for public transportation, offering first and last mile services, constantly recalculating routes, and delivering a safe and reliable ride. They can also be utilised to transport us to work, school, or social events. Hospitals, airports, retirement homes, live event organisers, and others can use them as shuttles. The possibilities are truly endless. Those who previously were unable to drive will now be able to enjoy the comfort of a car trip to their destination. Consider this: if you didn't have to drive, what would you do with your time? Wouldn't it be nice if you could just sit in the rear seat?

Connected

We've never been more connected to each other or the rest of the globe. It won't be any different in the future. They will be able to interact with one another, forming convoys that will make the roads more efficient and safer. They may also connect to a cloud of data points, which would constantly update the most effective routes depending on data from other cars on the same network. Have you ever been on a road trip with friends, family, or coworkers and been advised to follow someone else? What if your automobiles merely talked to one other and kept each other up to speed on diversions, where they are, and where they're going? One family's car may press a button to request a bathroom break or to indicate a desire to stop for a snack, and the entire squadron would be aware of and interact with one another.

Electric

“The future of the car industry is electric,” said President Biden, who suggested a $174 billion investment in electric automobiles (7). This proposal includes $45 billion for electric school and transportation buses. The establishment of a countrywide network of charging stations is another major objective of this package. Concerns about battery range and charging ability have been and continue to be one of the most significant barriers to electric vehicle adoption. Currently, the country has only 41,400 electric vehicle charging outlets (7). Countries all around the world are constructing charging infrastructure, and practically every OEM is engaging in the move away from internal combustion engines and toward electric vehicles. Electric vehicles, too, have a lot of space for improvement. Not only lithium-ion batteries, but all batteries are continually being upgraded. Among other things, scientists are focusing on constructing solid-state or graphene-based batteries. Charging can also be done wirelessly, whether inside a garage or under the road at a stop sign or a red light. While having an electric vehicle today has its drawbacks, consider how far they've come in the last ten years and how much more advanced they'll be by 2030.

Shared

Communal transportation, such as public transportation, and ridesharing or carsharing are examples of shared mobility. Vehicles that are self-driving, connected, and electric are intended to be shared. They can provide a seamless, noise- and emission-free experience for public transit and shuttles, with on-demand vehicles to accommodate varying demand. An autonomous car can pick you up and drop you off at work, then pick up another passenger before returning to pick you up at the end of the day for car sharing and ride sharing.

Collaborative efforts between OEMs are another form of shared mobility. The number of ACES collaborations has expanded by a factor of forty in the last decade (5). For manufacturers to give consumers and businesses safe and connected automobiles, this trend must continue. We can make the roadways safer, less congested, more efficient, and less expensive if we can exchange information and technology.

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